Plan b twitter4/28/2023 ![]() The 4 clusters in the S2FX model correspond to the following drivers as recorded by Plan B: ![]() Plan B observes in his model that power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems. Every halving, Bitcoin SF doubles and market value increases 10x, this is a constant factor. A power law is a relationship in which a relative change in one quantity gives rise to a proportional relative change in the other quantity, independent of the initial size of those quantities. These phase transitions have been mapped back to the narratives around Bitcoin that prevailed on social and popular media at the time.Īnother interesting result of the BTC S2F is validation of the ‘power law’. When plotted on the S2F graph, a cluster of coordinates are revealed that represents a phase, followed by a significant leg up to the next phase, representing the transition. This may be due to a certain characteristic, use case, or even the narratives surrounding the asset. Phase transitions are epochal events that change the fundamental value of an asset. Historically, the S2F model has been a good forecast metric for gauging Bitcoin’s prices.įurthermore, the Bitcoin S2FX model, also devised by Plan B, further consolidates this model by offering explanations for the phase transition in Bitcoin’s lifecycle. Plan B calculated the S2F numbers for Bitcoin over a period of time and plotted it on a logarithmic scale against the market value of Bitcoin. If such problems can be overcome, we can achieve bitgold.” Given the hardcoded supply, emissions and immutability of Bitcoin, it merits application of the S2F model. There are some problems involved with implementing unforgeable costliness on a computer. Plan B once quoted Nick Szabo, a computer scientist who coined the term ‘smart contracts’: “What do antiques, time, and gold have in common? They are costly, due either to their original cost or the improbability of their history, and it is difficult to spoof this costliness. However, its more recent application to Bitcoin markets was first popularised by pseudonymous financial quant expert, PlanB. This model has historically been applied to precious metals like gold and silver, the price of which is largely driven by scarcity. The higher the number, the higher the price. It shows how many years (at the current production rate) would be required to achieve the current stock. The S2F is the ratio of current stock and the additional flow of an asset. This fundamental determinant of price – scarcity – is what’s used by the Stock-to-Flow(or the S2F prediction model). Scarcity is what necessitates the rational use of resources, and the market puts a premium on it called ‘price’ to ensure fair asset valuations. Get The Latest News And Updates From Phemex! SubscribeĮconomics, at a basic level, is the study of scarcity.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply.AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |